MORTGAGE MELTDOWN?

April 13th, 2007

“I’M MELTING! MELTING! OH, WHAT A WORLD, WHAT A WORLD…” Wicked Witch, Wizard of Oz 1939….And lately, you can’t watch the financial news for longer than a few minutes without hearing about the “subprime meltdown”. What exactly is going on, and what does it mean to you? 

A “subprime” home loan is a loan where the client has some significant credit issues, or was otherwise unable to qualify for a standard, conventional loan. Due to the fact that these loans tend to be quite risky for the lender…they also bear higher interest rates to match, as well as often being adjustable rates that likely have recently hiked sky high, not to mention the steep prepayment penalties they generally carry. These loans have been around for years - so why all the drama now? 

Many subprime and other adjustable home loan rates have moved dramatically higher, due in part to the Federal Reserve Boards recent rate hike cycle. So as these rates are adjusting higher - and the payment right along with it - the homeowners are finding that they are unable to keep up with the dramatic increase in payment. In the past, homeowners in this situation would simply throw the house on the market, realize enough of a profit to cover any prepayment penalties, and literally move on. But the soft real estate market isn’t making this quite so easy any more - houses are not selling as quickly, and the home appreciation rates enjoyed in the past have moderated. 

So the subprime homeowner is stuck - and many of these homes are falling into foreclosure, causing even more problems. As more and more loans are defaulting, mortgage lenders are forced to tighten up their lending standards across the board in response…making it tougher for a troubled homeowner to even refinance to get out of trouble. Many subprime lenders are feeling the pain, and in some cases, actually being forced to close their doors as they are hit with all the defaulted loans and foreclosed properties coming back home to roost. How does this impact you? 

In the short term, home loan rates are benefiting, as the stock market is taking a beating, causing money to flow into Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities, which benefits home loan rates. But the longer term picture may spell higher interest rates ahead, as lenders have to absorb the cost of the loans that went belly-up, combined with the cost of increased compliance and accountability standards. Now in many cases, the advice and loan strategy given to the client was perfectly appropriate for the client at the time they took out the loan…but the “perfect storm” of colliding economic events may have just worked against them. Yet unfortunately, many homeowners are paying a very steep price for what may have been poor advice and counsel given them at the time of their home purchase or refi. Now more than ever before, it is clear that it pays to work with true professionals, especially when your home is on the line. If you’ve ever thought it’s too expensive to work with a real professional…just wait until you work with an amateur. The price paid is clear - and in this case, it’s a very painful one. 

Because of these events, credit and lending standards are tightening across the board, so it’s a great time to get a “financial check up” - both you personally, as well as your clients, friends, family members and coworkers - even if they are not immediately in need of any home loan financing. You know that we want to build relationships for the long run, not just to provide a “transaction” - so although you may not have a need for financial or home loan services at this time, please get in touch for a review of your current credit and financial situation. There may be recommendations we can make now, that will ensure you are in the best possible shape to obtain the most favorable financing terms when the need does arise.

Thanks to Steve Murillo of First Manhatton Mortgage, you can find him at…1stmanhattan.com or email him at steve@1stmanhattan.com

Housing Stats for Los Angeles County, Feb 2007

April 12th, 2007

Southern California Real Estate Statistics:
Los Angeles, CA
Feb. 2007

SFRs # of sales Median sales price
Feb. 2007 3946 $540,000
Previous Mo. 4376 $538,250
1 year Ago 3316 $519,000
Condos # of sales Median sales price
Feb. 2007 1589 $460,000
Last Mo. 1586 $450,000
1 year Ago 1232 $425,000
 

Source: Realist.com

 

The many definitions of “a good appraiser”

March 28th, 2007

I have heard it said, “A good appraiser is hard to find”. It really depends on what definition you use. I have been around long enough to know there are a few definitions of a “good appraiser”.

The real estate appraiser’s definition of “a good appraiser“: A good appraiser is one who has been well trained through education, experience and mentoring. Understands if the value is off, someone relying on his report might get burned. The appraiser has good and extensive data sources and knows his service area well. He has a good idea of the ebb and flow of buyers and sellers in the market place, both from his data and from his experience with the market area. When including comparing sales in his report, he strives to use the most recent sales which are most comparable to the subject property. Physical and locational differences are adjusted based on what the market indicates. The good appraiser also considers comparable listings and/or pendings as (after market based adjustments) they tend to set the upper limits of value. The good appraiser reconciles all of his research, analysis and reasonings into a final value estimate that is not influenced by biased individuals connected with the transaction.

From over 20 years of appraising, the following is what I have come to understand the definition of a good appraiser is, from the view point of…

A few Divorcing spouses: A good appraiser is one who brings the value in LOW because I want to buy my EX out of the house.

A few Divorcing spouses: A good appraiser is one who brings the value in HIGH because I want my EX to buy me out of the house.

A few Commissioned loan agents: A good appraiser is one who will, look at comps and tell me what the value will be before doing the appraisal; use whatever comparable sales will indicate a high value (even if they are not the most comparable); withhold information about the property or location (which might put off the underwriter/lender); will change the report when the truth about the property does not match up with the underwriter/lenders guidelines or requirements; will bring the value in for what ever will make the loan work. (Disclaimer: the majority of commissioned loan agents I work with are very professional and do not use the above tactics)

All Lenders (the one with the money): A good appraiser will be unbiased in his appraisal and communicate true market value.

It is kind of funny that the definition of “a good appraiser” can be so varied. In the face of being labeled “a bad appraiser” by those who use another definition, the good appraiser will always stick to his definition, no matter the cost.

P.S. for a funny look at this topic, check out Real Estate, in the eye of the beholder

Appraisal Institutes John Ross moves to Zaio Corp.

March 28th, 2007

Since I am a Zaio zone owner, I am following the Zaio Corp. very closely.  John Ross was the CEO of the Appraisal Institute, of which I am a member.  Since I appreciate and admire the work of the Appraisal Institute, it was very satisfying when I heard that John was coming over to Zaio.  His “first impressions” will give you more understanding of what Zaio and the zone owners are up to. 

“First impressions – two weeks into working for Zaio
By John Ross
The Zaio concept is even more powerful than I expected! In my first two weeks on the job, I visited with many appraisers, clients who use appraisal services, and investors in growing small-cap companies. The ideas and market opportunities afforded Zaio Zone Appraisers are phenomenal.

Zaio does require a mind shift – it is a different approach, starting from street level photographs, then rating and ranking every home against all similar homes in the context of the market, and completing the analysis with field inspections to confirm or update the ratings and rankings. This process results in a value estimate from an exterior inspection for virtually every property in the zone. Of course, there will be unique properties, and some under construction, etc., so “every” is a bit of an overstatement, but even identifying those provides useful information. Having the unique (for whatever reason) properties identified helps to define the scope of work and the level of analysis required for that home.

As they come to understand the concept, appraisers, clients for appraisal services and investors all begin thinking about the possibilities. With organized data on virtually every property, an appraiser not only is a better appraiser, but can also open up new lines of business: consulting to sellers and brokers, to the insurance industry, to governmental agencies, etc. Clients appreciate an internally consistent, current, and responsive way to serve their needs…and investors see a company with tremendous growth potential as we open up new markets to appraisers ranging from insurance to portfolio analysis and consulting. An investor at a conference in New York last week said to me, “If Zaio and the Zone appraisers can prove this concept across the country, it is the next big thing – real estate will be as efficient as other investments!”

I don’t mean for this to be a sales pitch, but I have become passionate – everything that I have seen and learned in my first two weeks with Zaio confirms the conclusion from my initial analysis: Zaio is for real. It offers appraisers significantly increased efficiency and productivity, as well as a new business development and growth model. It also helps to address key industry issues – it becomes much more difficult to pressure and/or influence an appraiser who can prove and support where a home fits in the context of the other 157 (or 83 or 419) similar to it in its market. Non-traditional clients, like portfolio traders in the secondary markets, and the property & casualty insurance market, can also be served more effectively.

After years of working to improve the profession, to develop high standards for appraisals and for appraisal data, and to provide quality professional education, it is really exciting to be part of a company that can deliver an innovative quality driven business model for appraisers!

As with any growth company, there are challenges to be met. In order to attract business from national clients, Zaio needs to establish sufficient market coverage. Our goal is to reach about 65% of the lending footprint over the next year, and the entire market in the U.S. by 2011. That means matching (selling) zones to appraisers, and then getting the zones photographed (which Zaio pays for), delivering the photos and property data to appraisers…and train and support the appraisers to rate and rank the properties within their zone. From an appraiser standpoint, there is the zone investment, and the time to organize the property data, score the properties according to our proprietary rating system and conduct their required field inspections. The time from zone purchase to an operational zone may take up to nine to twelve months. It is possible to significantly reduce this time frame, which is based on several variables, such as the time the appraiser can commit to this initiative (most concurrently operate their existing business), the weather (snow delays in some markets), and meeting the minimum number of appraiser owned zones in the area to trigger the photography phase.

Zaio is making great progress. Mesa, Arizona and Spokane, Washington are already operational. Photography is underway in Orange County, San Diego County, St. Louis and Orlando with another 8-12 cities starting within the next 4-6 six weeks, including Houston, Denver/Colorado Springs and Los Angeles. In fact, we are beginning to “photograph ahead” working on that step before zones are sold in some strategically selected markets.

Appraisers in the markets that are set up – Mesa and Spokane – are starting to enjoy significant benefits. Revenue from local market clients (lenders, realtors, consumers, etc.), as well as gaining real efficiencies in all the appraisals they do, not just the Zaio-driven appraisals. We are beginning some tests with national clients, and are seeing a positive response (one test I am involved with brought an almost immediate “How soon can you provide this information for the Southeast? How soon for California?”).

There are many positive aspects to Zaio – including developing an “appreciating investment” where the zone is expected to have increasing value as the revenue stream builds– and one that is particularly exciting is the training program for new appraisers. The Zaio model answers a question I dealt with at the Appraisal Institute: How can appraisal trainees gain experience toward their license?

By starting as a Zaio photographer, the trainee will, in a systematic and organized way, look at around 10,000 properties per zone. Those who show promise may also become further involved under the supervision of an appraiser with rating those properties, and then may ultimately accompany the appraiser during the field inspection process, leading to appraisal work under their supervisory appraiser. What other training program would provide opportunity for in-depth review of 10,000 properties in the first year – let alone four months – of an appraisal trainee’s experience? Combine this experience with a solid educational program and the trainee will be well-grounded for entry into the profession!

Zaio is developing strategically selected key markets today. However, appraisers in other markets can also get their market going by getting together and acquiring “multiple” zones (20 plus), in which case we will begin developing those markets as well. I really encourage appraisers to talk amongst their peers in the markets in which they work. More information is available on our website (zaio.com), and can also check out the information reported to the Toronto Stock Exchange, as Zaio is a public company (symbol: ZAO at tsx.com). Interested appraisers can also take part in an online webinar, and are welcome to attend one of our regional meetings. I will be in four cities in Ohio next week and am looking forward to talking with appraisers about this investment in their business future! Buzz readers can also contact company founder Brad Stinson at (Brad@zaio.com) or John Ross at (johnr@zaio.com). ”

Thanks go out to appraisalbuzz.com for this article.

Orange County CA real estate sales statistics for January

February 28th, 2007
No real estate bursting bubble here… 

Sales Statistics for ORANGE County CA
 Single Family Residence
 Time Period Number of Sales Median Sale Price 
 Jan 2007 1,094 $690,000 
 Jan 2006 1,411 $682,000 
 Dec 2006 1,424 $700,000 
 Dec 2005 2,257 $700,000 
 2007 YTD 1,553 $684,000 
 2006 22,034 $705,000 
 Condominium
 Time Period Number of Sales Median Sale Price 
 Jan 2007 718 $450,000 
 Jan 2006 950 $455,000 
 Dec 2006 681 $465,000 
 Dec 2005 1,499 $472,500 
 2007 YTD 974 $455,000 
 2006 12,020 $462,500 

Thanks to First American Real Estate Solutions for the data.

Appraisal data collection begins in Garden Grove California

February 26th, 2007
Today marks the beginning of data collection that will result in “driveby” appraisals for over 14,000 Garden Grove residences.  In simple terms, the process will work as follows. Photographs will be taken of all properties, then public record and MLS data will populate the exclusive Zaio database.  Leeper Appraisal Services will then score/grade each property based on 6 value influencing categories.  Comparable sales will be identified for each market group and an exterior viewing will be done by a licensed real estate appraiser.  A final analysis for each property will populate the industry standard FNMA 2055 form.  The resulting real estate appraisal will be available almost instantaneously through Leeper Appraisal Services or Zaio.com.  The comparable sales will be updated on a monthly basis to insure an “up to date” appraisal is ready when it is needed by owners, Realtors, loan agents or anyone needing an appraisal.  We will bring you more information as the process continues.  Leeper Appraisal Services will continue on into the cities of Anaheim, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach and Santa Ana.

Lenders Now Using Zaio’s Innovative Valuation Solution

February 14th, 2007

CALGARY, Feb. 13 /CNW/ - Zaio Corporation (TSX-V:) announced today that lenders, appraisers and consumers in Spokane, Washington, are now using Zaio’s industry-changing, innovative valuation solutions. Spokane is the first market in the country where high-quality, industry-compliant appraisals completed by a locally licensed or certified appraiser can be obtained instantly resulting in obvious “speed of delivery” and “peace of mind” benefits. 

Gary Cantrell, consumer risk manager for F&M Bank, reports, “Before Zaio, we were using a drive-by product that took about 10 days to receive, or a full interior appraisal that would cost over $300. The Zaio product has given us the ability to immediately document the property value, thus allowing an almost immediate turnaround for equity lending. Also, we really appreciate the more robust detail of the Zaio report compared to an Automated Valuation Model (AVM). Our regulatory burden to evaluate and document property values is ever increasing. Zaio helps us to exceed regulatory requirements by providing us the ability to use an appraisal when most lenders are using an AVM. And getting the evaluation almost immediately is hard to beat. We are sold on the Zaio solution.” Todd Powell, President and CEO of Spokane Firefighters Credit Union, said, “When a borrower is unsure of his property value, the Zaio system allows us to confirm a value range prior to ordering a full interior appraisal. We have used this on many occasions and found it a valuable tool that can save our members money.” 

“Zaio is an amazing system that will revolutionize the mortgage industry just like automated underwriting did. The ability to get an accurate value on a property instantly from my computer with the customer sitting in front of me and then later turn it into a completed URAR interior appraisal within a day is extraordinary. The system also reduces the risk of fraud. This takes a layer of risk out of the mortgage process when alternative lending products are at their highest,” emphasized DeeDee Williams, AVP/HLC operations manager, Panhandle State Bank. The property valuation reports in Spokane are being generated by several local appraisal firms that joined Zaio’s premiere appraiser network including Certified Appraisal Inc., Zone Assessment Professionals LLC, AAA Appraisal Service Inc. and Berg Appraisal Services PC. These Spokane area appraisal firms are the only appraisers in Spokane who have inspected and appraised virtually every home in the city and are enjoying an increase in their business volumes as a result. 

Tony Higley, president of Certified Appraisal, stated, “Spokane appraisers from five offices, using handheld computers, conducted an exterior inspection of virtually every home, authored appraisal reports and stored that information in Zaio’s secure network. The local appraisers constantly monitor and evaluate sales and listings in the local market as they occur and regularly update their value estimates. The result is an exterior appraisal that can be retrieved by the customer instantly, complete with pictures, produced on official industry-accepted appraisal forms, prepared and signed by a licensed appraiser who has inspected the property. “  Homeowners also benefit from Zaio’s solutions. Receiving an appraisal completed by an appraiser who is an exclusive member within the Zaio network can expedite home sales. Zaio also announced that the city of Mesa, Arizona, population 500,000, is completed and customers can now receive instant appraisals for virtually every home. In late 2006, Zaio completely sold out its software to local appraiser experts in 170 US cities in just 6 months. Zaio is now aggressively launching appraisal operations in those 170 cities and is expected to provide coverage in those and other US cities by the end of 2007. It is just a matter of time until an official appraisal for virtually every home in the United States will be completed by Zaio-affiliated appraisers and available to a variety of customers instantly. 

 

 

Leeper Appraisal Services Lands Major Contract with Zaio to Appraise over 60,000 homes!

February 6th, 2007

Leeper Appraisal Services is pleased to announce a mass appraisal initiative in Orange County California, partnering with Zaio Corporation (TSXV- ZAO).  Under terms of the agreement, Leeper Appraisal Services is required to appraise virtually every home in 10 Orange county zip codes.  Cities include Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Anaheim and Garden Grove.  The mass appraisal process will begin in March 2007 and is expected to be complete by the fourth quarter of 2007. 

Zaio is partnering with quality appraisal firms such as Leeper Appraisal Services to ensure the valuations on all residential properties are carried out accurately and timely with market adjustments to values done on a regular basis. This allows the delivery of accurate appraisal reports and other valuation products to lenders, Realtors, investors and others within seconds, in much the same way a lender obtains a credit report today.

About Zaio 

Zaio is developing a complete and comprehensive digitized photographic database of every residential and commercial property in cities across the United States. This is accomplished by photographing one property at a time from the street until every property in a city is in the database. In addition, the database is populated with assessment data and recent sales data on residential properties which, when combined with Zaio’s proprietary software, allows a property appraiser to populate the database with sufficient additional information that a full exterior appraisal report complete with a digitized signature can be generated within seconds of being requested by a lender. The Zaio technology substantially eliminates the delays currently experienced by lenders before a financing can be closed.

Real estate housing bubble, don’t think so…

December 28th, 2006
As an appraiser, I have seen some drop in values but have always maintained that I did not see any signs of “the bubble bursting” after the sharp run ups over the past few years.  I feel the same way now with some encouragement from Patrick’s article:
 
Existing home sales, consumer confidence up
By Patrick Rucker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - “”U.S. existing home sales rose in November for a second straight month and consumer confidence hit an eight-month high in December, according to reports on Thursday showing the economy ending the year on a solid note.
  

The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 0.6 percent in November to a 6.28 million-unit annual rate, defying Wall Street forecasts for sales to ease slightly and providing the latest suggestion that housing activity was stabilizing after a steep drop.

GOOD NEWS”   

The upbeat reading on home re-sales followed a report on Wednesday that showed a stronger-than-expected pace of new home sales last month as well.

“It lends credence to the opinion that we’re a good portion of the way through the housing slump,” Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategy at Delta Global Advisors in Boston, said of the existing home sales report.  The number of existing homes on the market slipped 1 percent to 3.82 million units, the Realtors’ trade group said. The November’s sales pace marked a 7.3 months’ supply, down from 7.4 months in October.

Although sales volume rose for a second straight month, median home prices were off 3.1 percent from year-ago levels, the fourth consecutive drop.
NAR Chief Economist David Lereah said the data held “mixed news” but it broadly signaled a stronger housing sector with inventories and sales stabilizing.

“The housing contraction has bottomed,” he said. “”

As always, real estate is a great investment and safe when thinking long term. 

Looking forward to a great 2007!  Let us know if we can be of service.
Chas W. Leeper, SRA
www.leeperappraisal.com

PMI now deductible for many homeowners!

December 23rd, 2006

Bush signs legislation that makes PMI deductible for many homeowners.  

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer 

December 20 2006: 12:42 PM EST 

“”NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A $40 billion tax bill signed into law Wednesday by President Bush extends several popular tax breaks and introduces a new one - tax-deductibility of private mortgage insurance (PMI). 

Only homeowners with adjusted gross income less than $110,000 and who itemize their deductions will be eligible to reap the benefit. 

But for those buyers, it will change the math of buying a house with a low or no down payment. 

“I love it,” says mortgage broker Bob Moulton of Americana Mortgage Group, “Even though it’s limited in who can qualify, it helps people get into a home.” 

Most lenders require buyers putting less than 20 percent down to purchase PMI because borrowers are more likely to walk away from a mortgage when they have less of their own money invested in the property. Lenders use PMI to protect themselves against that risk. 

The alternative to PMI is an equity loan “piggybacked” on top of the first mortgage. According to Moulton, extremely low interest rates on home equity loans (HELs) and lines of credit (HELOCs) encouraged buyers to use piggybacks instead of PMI the past several years. 

In addition, equity loan interest is tax deductible. With that advantage and the low rates, piggybacks became far cheaper than PMI. 

That situation has reversed because equity loans are based on the prime rate, which has climbed from about 4 percent to 8.25 percent. 

Today, according to Moulton, on a $225,000 home, the piggybacked portion of the loan would cost about $4,000 a year while the PMI payment would come to about $3,000 - or less - depending on the borrower’s credit score. 

The tax deduction on the equity loan would be about $1,600 for a borrower near the upper income limit. With the new law, the PMI tax break would be about $1,200. 

That means choosing PMI would cost $1,800 compared with $2,400 for the piggyback loan, an $800 savings. 

“It’s tough to justify going for a piggyback now,” says Moulton.”” 


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